Increasingly, Westchester County feels like New York City’s sixth borough.
During COVID, there was a mini-exodus from the city to Westchester, which drove up real estate prices and the overall cost of housing. The county is also experiencing a boomlet in high-density housing as a response to those rising costs. The urbanization of many of our leafy suburbs is underway. Progress for some—not so much for others.
Without delving into the pros and cons of these changes, they’ve had the effect of heightening my interest in the New York City mayoral race, the Democratic primary for which was completed last week.
Eleven candidates lined up at the starting gate. Amazingly, disgraced former governor and recent NYC resident Andrew Cuomo was leading in the polls. He even received endorsements from Michael Bloomberg and Bill Clinton. America loves a comeback story, I guess.
The large field is partly a result of New York’s ultra-progressive campaign finance law, which provides generous public matching funds. A candidate gets an $8 match for every $1 raised from donors. That money comes from the general fund—i.e., New York City taxpayers. It is supposed to level the playing field for less well-heeled candidates, but I'm not convinced. Name recognition still plays a huge role in driving donations, giving incumbents and former incumbents a leg up.
Another oddity is the city’s use of ranked-choice voting (RCV). When voters go to the polls, they don’t just select one candidate—they rank up to five in order of preference. In tabulating the results, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated, and their voters’ next-choice picks are redistributed. This process repeats, round by round, until one candidate surpasses 50% of the vote. The full count takes several weeks to complete.
Although Cuomo looked strong just a few weeks before the vote, enter Zohran Mamdani—a 33-year-old progressive state lawmaker and self-described democratic socialist. Mamdani ignited a groundswell of support, fueled by endorsements from Bernie Sanders, the Working Families Party and Westchester-raised Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC). When the votes were counted, Mamdani held 43.5% to Cuomo’s 36.4%.
Ranked-choice voting didn’t much matter in the end—80% of the vote went to one of the top two candidates. With the outcome clear, Cuomo conceded the race to Mamdani on election night. A stunning development.
Mamdani will be on the Democratic line in November. Joining him on the ballot will be Republican Curtis Sliwa and current Mayor Eric Adams, who is running on an independent line. Cuomo has also qualified to run as an independent, but has not yet announced whether he will. If he does, we’ll have a fascinating four-way race. Interestingly, a recent Manhattan Institute poll predicted Cuomo would win if he ran as an independent in a four-way race. Take that with a grain of salt, though - the poll was conducted weeks ago, when Cuomo was polling much stronger than his final primary results. Stay tuned.
A young socialist winning this primary is clearly an earthquake. And given Westchester’s growing “sixth borough” status, it’s worth noting the themes of Mamdani’s campaign that resonated: the high cost of housing and groceries. Inflation still has real impacts. Rent control and city-run grocery stores were key planks in his platform—issues that may find traction here, too.
With New York moving to even-year elections - combining local, state and national contest - expect one party government to become even more entrenched. Incumbents are likely to be challenged from the left, not the right. That means a shift further into deep-blue territory. As a result, November elections may become largely irrelevant. The real battles will be in the Democratic primaries.
Whether Westchester is ready for New York City’s nutty campaign finance system remains to be seen. But don’t be surprised - if the city is any example, politics here are poised to take a hard left.
